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SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance System in Canada: Longitudinal Trend Analysis Open Access (recommended)


Resource type(s)
global COVID surveillance
new COVID strains
Canada Public Health Surveillance
Great COVID Shutdown
Canadian COVID-19
surveillance metrics
wave 2 Canada COVID-19
dynamic panel data
generalized method of the moments
Canadian econometrics
Canada SARS-CoV-2
Canadian COVID-19 surveillance system
Canadian COVID transmission speed
Canadian COVID transmission acceleration
COVID transmission deceleration
COVID transmission jerk
COVID 7-day lag
Attribution 4.0 International

Post, Lori Ann
Boctor, Michael Jacob
Issa, Tariq Ziad
Moss, Charles B
Murphy, Robert Leo
Achenbach, Chad J
Ison, Michael G
Resnick, Danielle
Singh, Lauren
White, Janine Inui
Welch, Sarah
Oehmke, James Francis
Background: The COVID-19 global pandemic has disrupted structures and communities across the globe. Numerous regions of the world have had varying responses in their attempts to contain the spread of the virus. Factors such as public health policies, governance, and sociopolitical climate have led to differential levels of success at controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Ultimately, a more advanced surveillance metric for COVID-19 transmission is necessary to help government systems and national leaders understand which responses have been effective and gauge where outbreaks occur. Objective: The goal of this study is to provide advanced COVID-19 surveillance metrics for Canada at the country, province, and territory level that account for shifts in the pandemic including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence. Enhanced surveillance identifies risks for explosive growth and regions that have controlled outbreaks successfully. Methods: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from Canadian public health registries for 13 provinces and territories. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Canada as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. Results: We compare the week of February 7-13, 2021, with the week of February 14-20, 2021. Canada, as a whole, had a decrease in speed from 8.4 daily new cases per 100,000 population to 7.5 daily new cases per 100,000 population. The persistence of new cases during the week of February 14-20 reported 7.5 cases that are a result of COVID-19 transmissions 7 days earlier. The two most populous provinces of Ontario and Quebec both experienced decreases in speed from 7.9 and 11.5 daily new cases per 100,000 population for the week of February 7-13 to speeds of 6.9 and 9.3 for the week of February 14-20, respectively. Nunavut experienced a significant increase in speed during this time, from 3.3 daily new cases per 100,000 population to 10.9 daily new cases per 100,000 population. Conclusions: Canada excelled at COVID-19 control early on in the pandemic, especially during the first COVID-19 shutdown. The second wave at the end of 2020 resulted in a resurgence of the outbreak, which has since been controlled. Enhanced surveillance identifies outbreaks and where there is the potential for explosive growth, which informs proactive health policy.
Original Bibliographic Citation
Post L, Boctor MJ, Issa TZ, Moss CB, Murphy RL, Achenbach CJ, Ison MG, Resnick D, Singh L, White J, Welch SB, Oehmke JF. SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance System in Canada: Longitudinal Trend Analysis. Jmir Public Health and Surveillance. 2021;7(5):11.
Related URL
Date Created
Original Identifier
(PMID) 33852410
Subject: MESH
Public Health Surveillance
Longitudinal Studies
Models, Statistical
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Subject: Geographic Name
British Columbia
New Brunswick
Newfoundland and Labrador
Northwest Territories
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
Quebec (Province)
Yukon Territory
Grants and funding
Davee Innovations Research Endowment for North America

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