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Surveillance of the Second Wave of COVID-19 in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analyses Open Access (recommended)

Post L, Culler K, Moss CB, Murphy RL, Achenbach CJ, Ison MG, Resnick D, Singh LN, White J, Boctor MJ, Welch SB, Oehmke JF. Surveillance of the Second Wave of COVID-19 in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analyses. Jmir Public Health and Surveillance. 2021;7(4):16.

Descriptions

Resource type(s)
Article
Keyword
SARS-CoV-2 surveillance
wave two
second wave
global COVID surveillance
Europe Public Health Surveillance
Europe COVID
Europe surveillance metrics
dynamic panel data
generalized method of the moments
Europe econometrics
Europe SARS-CoV-2
Europe COVID surveillance system
European COVID transmission speed
European COVID transmission acceleration
COVID transmission deceleration
COVID transmission jerk
COVID 7-day lag
SARS-CoV-2
Arellano-Bond estimator
GMM
Albania
Andorra
Austria
Belarus
Belgium
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Greenland
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Isle of Man
Italy
Latvia
Liechtenstein
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Moldova
Monaco
Montenegro
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
San Marino
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Vatican City
Rights
Attribution 4.0 International

Creator
Post, Lori Ann
Culler, Kasen Lyndell
Moss, Charles B.
Murphy, Robert L.
Achenbach, Chad J.
Ison, Michael G.
Resnick, Danielle
Singh, Lauren Nadya
White, Janine Inui
Boctor, Michael Jacob
Welch, Sarah B.
Oehmke, James Francis
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Europe, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has breached the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders. Objective: This study aimed to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand countries at risk for explosive growth and those that are managing the pandemic effectively. Methods: We performed a longitudinal trend analysis and extracted 62 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Europe as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. Results: New COVID-19 cases slightly decreased from 158,741 (week 1, January 4-10, 2021) to 152,064 (week 2, January 11-17, 2021), and cumulative cases increased from 22,507,271 (week 1) to 23,890,761 (week 2), with a weekly increase of 1,383,490 between January 10 and January 17. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom had the largest 7-day moving averages for new cases during week 1. During week 2, the 7-day moving average for France and Spain increased. From week 1 to week 2, the speed decreased (37.72 to 33.02 per 100,000), acceleration decreased (0.39 to -0.16 per 100,000), and jerk increased (-1.30 to 1.37 per 100,000). Conclusions: The United Kingdom, Spain, and Portugal, in particular, are at risk for a rapid expansion in COVID-19 transmission. An examination of the European region suggests that there was a decrease in the COVID-19 caseload between January 4 and January 17, 2021. Unfortunately, the rates of jerk, which were negative for Europe at the beginning of the month, reversed course and became positive, despite decreases in speed and acceleration. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate was higher during week 2 than during week 1. These measures indicate that the second wave of the pandemic may be subsiding, but some countries remain at risk for new outbreaks and increased transmission in the absence of rapid policy responses.
Related URL
Publisher
JMIR PUBLICATIONS, INC
Date Created
2021-04
Original Identifier
(PMID) 33818391
Grants and funding
Feed the Future through the United States Agency for International DevelopmentUnited States Agency for International Development (USAID) [7200LA1800003]
DOI
10.2196/25695

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